Post: Australia runs risk of blackouts, says AEMO

Australia runs risk of blackouts, says AEMO

Australia faces the risk of power shortages owing to delays in installing transmission lines tied to wind and solar farms, AEMO has said.

In an update to the 2023 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) report, published on 21 May, AEMO said the delay in commissioning dates for EnergyConnect, a 900km transmission line to connect grids across three states, as well as the mothballing and retirement of gas and diesel power generators in South Australia could impact the power grid.

The update was triggered due to material changes impacting reliability risks since the 2023 ESOO was published last August, including new commissioning dates for Project EnergyConnect, and mothballed gas and diesel generators in South Australia. The addition of approximately 4.6GW of new generation and storage projects that have sufficiently advanced was also considered.

Reliability gaps are forecast in all mainland NEM regions in the next decade in the ESOO Central scenario, signalling a need for further commitment and delivery of generation, transmission, demand side participation (DSP) and consumer assets such as batteries that can be orchestrated to minimise grid requirements. 

Source: AEMO

Compared to the 2023 ESOO central scenario, reliability risks have increased in New South Wales and Victoria from 2024-25 to 2027-28 and increased in South Australia in 2026-27. Due to newly considered generation and storage developments, reliability risks are forecast lower than the 2023 ESOO central scenario towards the end of the horizon in all mainland regions.

As a result of the reliability gaps forecast, AEMO will tender for Interim Reliability Reserves in New South Wales and Victoria to minimise reliability risks should low reserve conditions emerge over summer 2024-25.

The next ESOO will be published in August 2024.

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