Post: Blackouts less likely this winter says National Grid

Blackouts less likely this winter says National Grid

There is a lower risk of electricity blackouts this winter compared to last, as a result of increased generation and the ability to manage demand, according to National Grid ESO.

In its 2023-24 Winter Outlook report, published on 28 September, the system operator said margins are higher than last winter under the Base Case.

This winter the ESO expects to see normalised weather corrected national demand to be met in the Base Case before using any operational tools. Average Cold Spell (ACS) demand to be met under our base case but it said it may still need to use our operational tools (e.g. system notices). Normalised peak demand is expected to occur in the first two weeks of January during which time the minimum operational surplus is expected to be lowest.

Under normal market conditions margins are expected to be adequate and within the Reliability Standard. The Base Case margin is 4.4GW or 7.4%, which is slightly higher than last year (3.7GW or 6.3%) and broadly in line with recent winters. The associated loss of load expectation (LOLE) is 0.1 hours. While ESO expects there to be sufficient operational surplus in our Base Case throughout winter, it said there may be some days when margins are tighter and it “may need to use the tools in standard operational toolkit, including use of system notices”.

Source: National Grid ESO

Among other measures, to prepare ahead of winter National Grid ESO has announced the return of the Demand Flexibility Service (DFS), which was introduced last winter to help the UK cope with tight energy supplies, saved over 3,300MWh of electricity across the events. In total, 1.6M households and businesses signed up to participate in 22 events across the winter, covering both live events to balance the electricity network and monthly test events to deliver savings for consumers and demonstrate how effective the system could be. GridBeyond provided DFS service to its clients over the winter and helped deliver 190.01MWh across the five months.

Academy | Webinar

Webinar: Unlock savings and revenue potential with DFS 

A formal consultation is in progress to determine the final terms of this years’ service, but in this webinar GridBeyond’s Mitesh Gunputh Market Strategy and Risk- UK in Regulatory will explore: The electricity landscape for the coming Winter , Operations Directors and Facility Managers, CFOs and Finance Professionals, Business Owners and Decision Makers and Energy Consultants and Advisors.

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