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Posted 2 years ago | 2 minute read

“Reliability gaps” loom in in Australia’s electricity market
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has warned that without investment in new generation electricity storage and transmission, power demand will outstrip supply in most regions of the National Electricity Market (NEM) in the next 10 years.
In its 2022 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) report, published on 31 August, AEMO said, considering only existing and committed projects, in the short to medium term, without additional investment beyond present commitments, reliability gaps are forecast in South Australia (in 2023-24) and Victoria (from 2024-25). Longer term, indicative reliability gaps are forecast in all NEM mainland regions before 2031-32.
Across the NEM, it forecast that power demand would expand by about 15% over the next decade. That rise would come even as solar panels roughly doubled their contribution, meeting as much as half of household demand by 2031-2, up from 23% currently. The report noted the NEM has 7.3GW of committed generation capacity and 3.4GW of generation and storage projects.
AEMO CEO Daniel Westerman said:
“In the next decade, Australia will experience our first cluster of coal-generation retirements, at least five power stations totalling 8.3GW, equal to approximately 14% of the NEM’s total capacity […] Without further investments, this will reduce generation supply and challenge the transmission network’s capability to meet reliability standards and power system security needs”.
GridBeyond Managing Director Mark Davis said:
“Although Australia has a strong (7.3GW) pipeline of new wind and solar plants, and battery storage projects, this falls well short of the development opportunity identified in the 2022 Integrated System Plan.
“High energy prices and new risks of energy shortages, resulting from the fast COVID-19 economic recovery and the war in Ukraine, have forced a reprioritisation of energy security. What is needed now, more than ever, is a holistic approach that delivers concurrently on the three transition imperatives – affordability, security of supply, and sustainability – at an accelerated pace. To meet this challenge, it’s crucial that supply-side interventions are supplemented with action on the demand-side to achieve the energy transition objectives in the required time frame.
“With the right technology and automation processes in place, current energy market volatility and security constraints provide an opportunity for industrial and end consumers to help keep the lights on while generating additional revenue and making savings on energy costs.”

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