Insights
better business decisions
Posted 2 years ago | 3 minute read
Texas grid still vulnerable to extreme winter weather, ERCOT estimate shows
Changes to Texas’ power grid have improved ERCOT’s ability to keep supplies on during major winter storms, but in an extreme scenario, the grid could still face rolling blackouts.
In its Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy for the ERCOT Region (SARA) Winter 2022/23, published on November 29, ERCOT said providing the region sees “typical winter grid conditions” that there will be sufficient installed generating capacity available to serve the system-wide forecasted peak demand for the upcoming winter season.
The forecasted peak demand is 67,398MW. About 87,300MW of winter-rated resource capacity is expected to be available for the winter peak. This includes 150MW of planned capacity expected to become operational by the start of the winter season. The total resource amount also includes 947MW of battery storage energy that is assumed to be available based on an analysis of average real-time reserves contributed by battery storage during the hours with the tightest reserves on July 13, 2022. Two thermal generation resources totalling 685 MW are out of service for the duration of the winter season.
ERCOT considered three extreme winter weather scenarios, using assumptions based on weather conditions during the February 2021 winter storm. The extreme scenarios examined assume gas- and coal-fired power plants can reduce planned outages by 70% compared to the 2021 winter storm with better warnings from ERCOT. It also assumes that because of regulatory efforts made to better weatherize the energy fuel supply, those plants can reduce unplanned outages by 90% compared to those seen during the 2021 winter storm. Each extreme scenario shows the grid operator would need to ask Texans to take action to reduce electricity usage.
ERCOT and the Public Utility Commission are currently working to redesign Texas’ power market. A plan released earlier this month proposes that power providers would be required to purchase “performance credits” from power generators, intended to guarantee enough electricity is available to meet high demand. If providers don’t buy the credits or generators don’t produce the power, both would face financial penalties.
GridBeyond SVP North America Wayne Muncaster said:
“It is critically important to address the fact that under the most extreme conditions, there could be not enough power. It’s no longer enough to procure energy on a fixed contract and assume it will be delivered. To ensure your businesses are prepared for the coming season (and for the future) participation in energy markets will be critical”
“At GridBeyond we provide a whole of market service to take your business from passive procurement to active energy management. Through a deep understanding of your requirements, our trading and energy experts will draw upon our AI smart forecasts to provide advice on a tariff type and supplier that will allow you to best monetise your indexed position.
USA Ai. Services
It begins with data… and ends with benefits The increasing shift away from centralized power generation is bringing big changes […]
Learn more