Post: AEMO prepared for a possible challenging summer

AEMO prepared for a possible challenging summer

Summer heatwaves are expected to increase electricity demand to decade-highs, but AEMO is confident extra renewable generation capacity will reduce the risk of blackouts.

In its 2023-24 Summer Readiness Overview, published on 15 November, AEMO said Compared to last summer in the NEM, an average 1,500MW of scheduled generation and an extra 2,000MW of generation capacity from new wind and solar projects will be available this summer. In the WEM, nearly 50MW of extra scheduled generation is expected to be available.

The forecast for summer is for a hot and dry El Nino weather system, which is predicted to bring with it soaring temperatures. This could see electricity demand reach a one-in-10-year high along the eastern seaboard and in Western Australia. Additionally, AEMO warned of elevated bushfire risk, which could potentially damage high-voltage transmission lines, posing a severe threat to the electricity grid.

AEMO forecasts Victoria and South Australia to be at the greatest risk of electricity supplies falling short of the grid’s interim reliability measure and said risk of load shedding remains in all regions where high demand days combine with low renewables availability and or scheduled generation and network outages.

AEMO is in the process of procuring additional reserves through the Interim Reliability Reserve and Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) mechanisms in the NEM. In Western Australia, AEMO is tendering for reserves through the Supplementary Reserve Capacity mechanism.