Post: AEMO releases Draft Integrated System Plan

AEMO releases Draft Integrated System Plan

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has released its Draft 2022 Integrated System Plan, featuring a 30-year ideal pathway for investment in the National Electricity Market (NEM).

Published on 10 December after consultation, the Draft Integrated System Plan forecasts that “Step Change” (central scenario) is the most likely future for the NEM, which would see a rapid transformation, consisting of a significant investment in renewable generation, storage and firming generation as coal plants exit, and improvements to transmission.

Under the Step Change scenario, the NEM will operate without coal generation by 2043. This requires a substantial increase in battery and pumped-hydro storage, hydrogen or gas-fired generation for peak demand, all complemented by a market that incentivises energy users to adjust demand based on system conditions.

The Step Change scenario also anticipates a transformation of the NEM to 2050 including:

• A near doubling of electricity consumed from the grid to 330TWh as transport, heating, cooking and industrial processes are electrified.
• Construction of nine times the NEM’s current utility-scale wind and solar generation capacity (from 15GW to 140GW).
• Installation of four times the current distributed PV capacity (from 15GW to 70GW), with most coupled with an energy storage system.
• Treble the firming capacity that can respond to a dispatch signal (including 30GW at utility scale.)

AEMO CEO, Daniel Westerman, said the significant changes already underway in the NEM have continued to accelerate in recent years, considerably exceeding forecasts in the 2020 Integrated System Plan Central scenario. “This transformation will efficiently deliver secure, reliable and affordable electricity while substantially contributing to national emissions objectives”, he added.

GridBeyond Co-Founder and CEO Michael Phelan said: