Post: AEMO sets out roadmap for energy transition

AEMO sets out roadmap for energy transition

Australia’s energy market operator has said 120GW of grid-scale renewables and new dispatchable storage are needed by 2050 to meet a near doubling of electricity demand and deliver on government emissions and renewable energy targets.

In its Draft 2026 Integrated System Plan (ISP), published for consultation on 10 December, the market operator notes that electricity consumption is expected to nearly double by 2050, driven by electrification of transport, expansion of data centres and industry electrification. Two-thirds of the remaining coal fleet is expected to close by 2035, in many cases earlier than previously forecast, with all due to retire by 2049.

Source: AEMO

To deliver the least-cost optimal development path the NEM would need a total of 120GW of grid-scale wind and solar, 32GW grid-scale batteries, 14GW of flexible gas and 12GW of pumped hydro. In addition, a further 6,000 km of new transmission lines, the backbone of the electricity system, would need to be added to the existing 44,000 km network.

The annualised total capital cost of grid-scale generation, storage, transmission and distribution in the ODP would be $128B in today’s dollars. Transmission investments alone, around $9B, are expected to repay their costs, save consumers an additional $22B in avoided costs and deliver emissions reductions valued at $2B.

Consumers will also continue to play a major part in Australia’s energy transition, with expected investment in 87GW of small-scale solar, 27GW of behind-the-meter batteries and 9GW of storage from electric vehicles by 2050.

The final 2026 ISP is expected in June next year.