Post: ERCOT expects adequate resources this summer

ERCOT expects adequate resources this summer

Expected hot and dry conditions and continued economic and population growth throughout the region will lead to record energy demand this summer, but there will be sufficient generation to meet this peak if system conditions remain as expected, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

In its Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for Summer 2022 (June through September), published on 16 May, ERCOT said with continued economic growth across the state, it anticipates a summer 2022 peak demand of 77,317 MW, which accounts for load reductions based on an incremental rooftop solar capacity forecast. This would be a new system-wide peak demand record for the region.

But it maintained there will be “sufficient installed generating capacity to serve peak demands in the upcoming summer season” if system conditions remain as expected. ERCOT anticipates there will be 91,392MW of resource capacity available during summer peak demand hours, which includes 473MW of planned gas-fired, utility-scale solar and wind capacity. Additionally, ERCOT expects to have 2,035MW of operational battery storage resources, which includes 283MW of planned additions.

The summer capacity planning reserve margin is forecasted at 22.8%, after accounting for forecasted customer demand, emergency demand reduction programs, typical unplanned outages, and typical renewable output.

However, under its “Extreme Reserve Capacity Risk Scenarios” the picture looks less positive. Under the most extreme scenario (extreme peak load, widespread outages, low wind and solar output) capacity available for operating reserves under normal operating conditions, ERCOT has forecast that the grid could fall short by 10,651MW.

Wayne Muncaster, VP for North America at GridBeyond, commented:

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