Post: ERCOT forecasts sufficient power for Spring

ERCOT forecasts sufficient power for Spring

Existing power generating capacity in Texas is expected to meet peak demand from March through May, assuming that the Region experiences typical spring grid conditions, ERCOT has said.

In the latest Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy, published March 8. ERCOT said it expected power demand to peak at 59,505MW in April and at 69,921MW in May. This compares to near 99,800MW of generation capacity. The assessment is based on average weather conditions at the time of the spring peaks for 2007-2021, and does not take in to account forecasts for the upcoming spring season.

One thermal generation resource—a coal-fired unit with a 610MW spring rating—is out of service for the duration of the spring season and a gas-fired unit with a spring capacity rating of 568MW has changed its operating period to summer-only. The total resource amount also includes 844MW of battery storage capability assumed to be available for dispatch prior to the highest spring net load hours.

The most severe Risk Scenario assumes a forecasted May peak load with extreme unplanned thermal plant outages based on historic observations, combined with extreme low wind power production. ERCOT said its modeling of an extreme case scenario showed that in May, a possible combination of unusually high unplanned outages and greater-than-expected peak demand could trigger an EEA 3 load shedding event.

GridBeyond VP Revenue Joe Hayden said:

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