Post: Firmed renewables the path for a cleaner, cheaper, more reliable grid, says AEMO 

Firmed renewables the path for a cleaner, cheaper, more reliable grid, says AEMO 

Australia’s coal power stations will all close in 2038 – five years earlier than previously expected – and variable renewable energy capacity will need to triple by 2030 and increase sevenfold by 2050. 

In the draft of its 2024 Integrated System Plan, published on 15 December, the market operator shows the lowest-cost way to deliver a secure and reliable grid over coming decades is a renewable grid with hydro, batteries, flexible gas and transmission. The report shows that households and businesses are rapidly installing clean, cheap solar and electrifying their homes and transport but it said we need a reliable grid that supports that changing energy profile. 

Published every two years, AEMO’s Integrated System Plan (ISP) is a roadmap for the transition of the NEM power system, with a clear plan for essential infrastructure to meet future energy needs. It noted that aging coal-fired generation is becoming more unreliable with increasingly frequent unplanned outages, and that the fleet has and will continue to retire earlier than originally announced. 24 coal plants with a total capacity of 26.7 GW announced their closure dates under the last Government, and about 90% of the NEM’s coal fleet is forecast to retire before 2035 in AEMO’s most likely future scenario, and the entire fleet before 2040.  

Source: AEMO 

Renewables accounted for almost 40% of the total energy delivered through the NEM in the first half of 2023, momentarily reaching up to a 72.1% share on 24 October 2023. Rooftop solar alone contributed more electricity to the grid in the first quarter of 2023 (12.1%) than did grid-scale solar, wind, hydro or gas. At the same time, investments in grid-scale renewables, connecting transmission and firming technologies continue to gain momentum. 

Source: AEMO 

The report also noted that the Capacity Investment Scheme is already delivering and has been expanded to ensure delivery of 32GW of new capacity – for the long-term reliable, affordable and low-emissions energy system Australians deserve as our grid changes. But almost quadruple the firming capacity from sources alternative to coal that can respond to a dispatch signal, using utility-scale batteries, pumped hydro and other hydro, coordinated consumer energy resources as “virtual power plants” (VPPs), and gas-powered generation will be required. 

Public consultation will be open on the draft ISP until 16 February 2024, with the final report to be released in June. 

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