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Posted 3 years ago | 3 minute read

Healthy outlook for Western Australia’s power system, says AEMO

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has published its annual reliability outlook, forecasting that sufficient electricity supply is available to meet projected demand until at least 2025 in Western Australia’s (WA) major power system.

According to the 2022 Wholesale Electricity Market Electricity Statement of Opportunities report, published on 17 June 2022 the 10% probability of exceedance (POE) peak demand is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 0.9% over the outlook period. This is higher than the average annual peak demand growth of 0.2% forecast in the 2021 report, with the increase primarily driven by forecasts for stronger growth in demand from large industrial loads (LILs), residential customers, and uptake of electric vehicles (EVs).

Based on the 10% POE peak demand forecast, the Reserve Capacity Requirement (RCR) has been determined as 4,526MW for 2024-25. Although sufficient capacity is projected to be available to meet forecast peak demand until 2024-25, assuming no capacity changes compared to 2023-24 other than the planned retirement of Muja C unit 6 (193 MW) in October 20245. Assuming no new capacity becomes committed, capacity shortfalls are projected from 2025-26, driven by the combined impacts of the forecast growth in peak demand and lower capacity following the retirement of Muja C unit 6.

The report affirms the rapid pace and scale of the transition underway in WA’s power system, with distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) installations expected to grow at an average annual rate of 7% (238MW/year) to reach an estimated 4,716MW of installed capacity by 2031-32 (29.8% of underlying demand).

Source: AEMO

AEMO’s Executive General Manager WA and Strategy, Kate Ryan, said:

“New, firmed renewable capacity, such as the WA Government’s plan to invest in new wind generation and battery storage projects as it retires coal-fired power stations, can help alleviate any projected shortfalls as the future of WA’s power system takes shape towards 2030”.

“With renewables already providing up to 78.6% of power generation at any one point of time in the South West Interconnected System, AEMO is making every effort to develop tools that will enable grids that could run at times of up to 100% peaks of instantaneous renewable generation by 2025.

“As the energy transition in WA continues to accelerate, AEMO will keep working with the energy sector in WA and Australia to share our learnings and expertise. This will enable the transition to low-emissions energy whilst creating more opportunities for consumers to benefit from new, decentralised technologies like solar, batteries, and electric vehicles.”

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