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Posted 2 days ago | 2 minute read

NESO expects comfortable Summer

Britain’s National Energy System Operator expects a comfortable operational surplus throughout the summer, with supply forecast to meet all demand and reserve requirements under all conditions.

In its Summer Outlook report, published on 16 April, NESO noted that this Summer the network could need to operate at its lowest-ever level – below 13.4GW – at some points this summer. As a result there may be periods when operational tools, such as Negative Reserve Active Power Margin (NRAPM) notices are issued to manage the supply/demand balance, with battery storage playing a key role in providing within-day flexibility. The current record for low demand was set back in June 2020 as a result of COVID-19 Pandemic lockdowns, which suppressed electricity demand below normal summer minimum levels.

This is being driven by growth in renewables generation, particularly solar. Already this year multiple records for maximum solar generation have been set in March and April, with the record currently standing at 12.68GW, greater than Britain’s total import capability across the European interconnectors. Embedded generation has reduced the forecasted peak demand to 29.7GW, down from 30.3GW in 2024. Coupled electricity flows across interconnectors, which will continue to be shaped by significant price differentials. With baseload prices in GB forecast to be £15–£40/MWh higher than in continental Europe, NESO expects strong net imports this summer.

Source: NESO


Looking ahead to this Winter, the NESO has secured 7.9GW through the T-1 Capacity Market and will publish an Early View of Winter 2025-26 in June, followed by a full Winter Outlook in October.

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