Post: NESO expects power surplus this summer

NESO expects power surplus this summer

Power supplies will be secure across 2026 but there will likely be periods where there is too much power on the system, the National Energy System Operator (NESO) has said.

Published on 14 April, the 2026 Summer Outlook report notes that growth of renewable generation at both national and local levels, combined with favourable expectations for electricity needs in Europe, means that there will likely be sufficient operational surplus throughout the summer.

Source: NESO

Peak demand is expected to be comparable to last summer, as increases in underlying demand are expected to be offset by growth in embedded generation. The growing battery storage fleet is also expected to provide significant within-day flexibility.

But NESO said there will likely be periods of low demand. Embedded renewable generation is increasing demand variability and broadening the range of weather patterns that lead to low demand on the transmission system. But NESO said it will use the “full range of standard operational tools, including issuing a national Negative Reserve Active Power Margin (NRAPM) notice” if required.

It was also noted that as part of the ongoing development of the system operator’s operational toolkit, the Demand Flexibility Service (DFS) service design has been amended including the introduction of a negative margin element and lower capacity thresholds, which will increase the range of actions available at times of low demand.

What is a NRAPM notice?

If there is too much electricity being generated and not enough demand to absorb it (for example, on a quiet day when lots of solar or wind power is running) grid operators may need some power stations to reduce their output to keep the system balanced. An NRAPM notice is simply a warning to power stations that they may be asked to turn down.

A local NRAPM signifies that inflexible generation will exceed demand, and the constraint limit, on a portion of the network. A national NRAPM would be issued if NESO forecasts insufficient flexibility across the whole system.

NRAPMs are rare, and a national level notice has, to date, never been issued.