Post: North America faces power reliability concerns, says NERC

North America faces power reliability concerns, says NERC 

The North American Reliability Corporation (NERC) has warned that sharp increases in peak demand and the potential for higher generator retirements, could result in electric reliability concerns over the next 10 years. 

In its latest Long-Term Reliability Assessment, published on December 13, NERC found that the industry faces mounting pressure to keep pace with accelerating electricity demand, energy needs and transmission system adequacy as the resource mix transitions. 

According to the report, more than 83GW of fossil-fired and nuclear generator retirements are anticipated through to 2033. Over the same period, the resource mix continues to transition as wind, solar photovoltaic and battery resources are added. But the new mix of resources heightens fuel supply concerns as the reliance on just-in-time delivery of natural gas fuel to generation increases. 

Most areas are facing resource adequacy challenges, with many projected to have reserve shortages or emerging energy risks in future years.  

Source: NERC 

Although the majority of grid operator’s are  projected to have adequate electricity supply resources to meet demand forecasts associated with normal weather; two areas have been identified as not having the reserves to meet resource adequacy criteria: 

• Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO): New resource additions have overcome the planning reserve deficits that were reported in 2022 and projected to occur in 2023. Beginning in 2028, MISO is projected to have a 4.7GW shortfall if expected generator retirements occur, despite the addition of new resources that total more than 12GW. 
• SERC-Central: There is a shortfall in planned reserves in the 2025–27 period as demand forecasts increase faster than the transitioning resource mix grows. This assessment area will add more than 7GW of natural gas generation and retire more than 5GW of coal generation over the period. 

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