Post: NPCC warns of tight summer margins in Ontario

NPCC warns of tight summer margins in Ontario

The Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc. (NPCC) has released its annual reliability assessment, which predicts that the NPCC Region will have sufficient electricity supply this summer.

The assessment projects that the Region (consisting of the six New England states, the State of New York, the provinces of Ontario and Québec and the Canadian Maritime Provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia) will have an adequate supply of electricity this summer. It states that the overall NPCC coincident electricity summer peak demand is expected to be around 105,200MW, slightly higher than last summer. However, the region is projected to have a total capacity of about 163,300MW in place to meet electricity demand, and there is expected to be adequate transmission capability and capacity margins to meet peak demand and required operating reserves.

NPCC estimates that spare operable capacity will range from approximately 7,200MW to over 17,000MW this summer, over and above reserve requirements. More than 6,000 MW of estimated peak load reduction is also expected due to behind-the-meter generation, such as rooftop solar, energy efficiency, and other initiatives. Additionally, over 1,400MW of new renewables resources, including both land-based and offshore wind generation, are expected to be in-service over the summer period, with the expected commercial operation of the first major offshore windfarm connecting to Long Island.

The Ontario Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) 2023 forecasts installed capacity of 38,273MW for the peak week demand forecast of 22,439MW. IESO currently estimates 2,172MW of embedded solar PV, which has reduced its peak demand forecast by 893MW. This impact, along with other embedded behind-the-meter generation is the same as last year.

The IESO is anticipating a spare operable capacity of negative 700MW during the week of the NPCC forecast coincident peak demand. Due to a number of generator outages, the IESO anticipates relying on imports and planned generator outage rescheduling during the summer period, if needed.

From the summer of 2022 through this summer, additions include two new hydroelectric generators and the delayed commissioning of one wind generator, resulting in a net increase for Ontario’s generation of 178MW.