Post: PJM expects sufficient supplies this Summer

PJM expects sufficient supplies this Summer

PJM Interconnection has published its annual summer assessment, forecasting that under expected conditions it has sufficient supplies.

In its assessment, published May 11, PJM projects that the non-diversified peak demand for electricity this summer will be approximately 156,000MW, and has performed reliability studies at loads nearing 163,000MW. PJM has more than 186,000MW of installed generating capacity available to meet customer needs, with resources available in reserve to cover historically observed summer generation outage scenarios. PJM’s all-time, one-day highest power use was recorded in the summer of 2006 at 165,563MW.

While PJM’s assessment indicates it is prepared to maintain reliability this summer, modeling of extreme scenarios indicates potential tightening reserve margins, which could require the deployment of demand response in certain conditions. This scenario could occur in the event of extraordinary electricity demand and high generator outages.

The risk to reserve margins this year is a result of higher expected generator outage rates based on recent trends, particularly during Winter Storm Elliott, coupled with hot summer weather that drives up demand for electricity. It noted that the National Weather Service is predicting higher-than-normal temperatures this summer for most of the U.S., and particularly the East Coast and Gulf Coast.

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