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Posted 1 year ago | 1 minute read
PJM sets out long-term load forecast
PJM has forecast electricity demand growth of 1.7% per year for summer peaks, 2% for winter peaks, and 2.4% for net energy over a 10-year planning horizon starting in 2024.
PJM said that rising energy demand in the region is increasingly being driven by the development of data centers throughout the PJM footprint, combined with the accelerating electrification of transportation and industry.
The 2024 summer forecast peak demand, or load, is 151,254MW, according to the 2024 PJM Load Forecast Report, published on January 8, with summer peak load increasing to 178,895MW in 2034 and 193,123MW in 2039, an increase of nearly 42,000MW. Peak winter load for the 2024 winter is forecast at 134,663MW for the 2023–24 winter, going to 164,824MW in 2034 and 178,241MW in 2039, an increase of more than 43,000MW. Total annual energy use throughout the PJM footprint is expected to increase nearly 40% by 2039, from 800,000 gigawatt-hours (GWh) to about 1.1 million GWh.
PJM notes that increased demand, combined with accelerated generator retirements and the slow pace of replacement generation, will challenge reliability in the PJM footprint by 2030 if not addressed.
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