Post: PJM to see long-term load growth

PJM to see long-term load growth

PJM anticipates significant growth in electricity demand over the next 20 years but has lowered its peak demand forecast for summer 2027 to approximately 160GW, down from its previous outlook of about 164GW.

The 2026 Long-Term Load Forecast Report, published on January 14, anticipates lower peak demand in the near-term through 2032 due to updates to the electric vehicle and economic forecasts as well as improved vetting of requested adjustments for data centers and large loads. For example, the updated load forecast for summer 2026 predicts a drop in peak electricity use attributed to large loads (-0.7%), economic activity (-0.5%) and EVs (-0.1%) compared to the PJM 2025 Long-Term Load Forecast Report.

The 2025 report had predicted that peak load for summer 2025 would be approximately 154,000MW under normal peak conditions; the actual load came in at over 161,000MW due to a June heat wave that led to a spike in energy demand. PJM expects its summer peak to climb to over 241,000MW over the next 15 years. The record summer peak for the PJM footprint was 166,929MW in 2006.

While winter peaks will remain slightly lower than the summer, the 2026 report continues to show winter closing the gap in peak electricity use, estimated at nearly 224,000MW by 2041. PJM’s record-high winter peak occurred on January 22, 2025, when PJM served an average hourly load of approximately 143,336 MW. Current generating capacity in PJM is approximately 182,000 MW.

Source: PJM

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