GridBeyond experts have expressed that it looks highly likely the three Triad peaks will fall in Q4 2019. Wayne Tipping, Head of Trading, explains further…
“If all three Triads are confirmed to have happened in Q4, it would be a first since records began in 1990. This is very much to do with the temperature of the Q4 months and the comparative temperatures in January. It also looks as if one of the Triad periods this year could fall between 18:30-19:00 (20% chance), making this another first in Triad history. With more batteries recharging after Triad warnings and DSR sites loading back up, this would explain the rise in demand at this time.”
- From the graph Triad 2019/2020, there’s a strong correlation between temperature, demand and likelihood of triad.
- January temperatures were the main driver behind this (highest average temperatures across the 4 triad months).
- GridBeyond only called a high chance of triad on 15 days. Many other providers (of triad forecast) typically call 20-30 days.
- Mild winter weather with increased penetration of DSR and batteries makes triad forecasting an increasingly challenging task.
- From the graph Triad 2019/2020 Q4 shifts from Initial Demand Out-Turn to most recent settlement run can be seen. This also adds to the challenges for triad forecasting.
- The upcoming Targeted Charging Review (TCR) sees TNUoS (Triad) cost recovery changing from 2021. This will be replaced on the basis of either capability (kVa connection) or usage (kWh pa).
- GridBeyond experts will be shifting from Triad forecasting to overall Price optimisation. This will be vital in protecting our flexible customers against, what is likely to be, a more volatile wholesale energy and imbalance price.
For more information on how your business can mitigate high energy costs through price optimisation, contact our friendly team.
Note: GridBeyond are unable to officially state the Triad dates until National Grid calculate this with most recent settlement run data. From the most recent settlement run data available to GridBeyond, Triads all appear to fall in Nov-Dec and were all predicted by GridBeyond.