Post: Wind and solar to overtake coal in US

Wind and solar to overtake coal in US

2023 may continue the trend of “one of the most significant shifts in the mix of US electricity generation” seen over the last few years with the “rapid expansion” of solar and wind.

In its latest Short Term Energy Outlook, published on 10 January 10. The EIA said combined wind and solar generation is expected to overtake both natural gas and coal-fired generation beginning this year, while lower natural gas prices could bring about a decline in coal generation. It expects that the share of electricity generation from coal will fall from 20% in 2022 to 18% in 2023 and 17% in 2024. This decline will be partially offset by an increase in the forecast share of combined utility-scale solar and wind generation from 16% in 2023 to 18% in 2024.

From 2017-2022, wind generation grew by more than 60% to reach 143GW, an average annual increase of about 12%. For 2023, EIA is forecasting an 11% year/year increase in new capacity, or another 12GW. Solar additions are seen jumping by two percentage points from 2022-2023, and battery storage additions to capacity in our forecast are 10GW in 2023 and 9GW in 2024.

The US electric power sector currently operates roughly 74 GW of solar capacity, or about 3% of the total generation capacity. Moving forward, that figure may surge 84% to 137 GW by the end of 2024. California and Texas, “where natural gas has been the primary source of electricity,” are leading the growth in solar capacity additions, EIA said.

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