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Posted 18 hours ago | 2 minute read
Adequate supplies expected this winter: National Grid ESO
Battery storage and renewable generation capacity are expected to help maintain adequate electricity margins in the UK during winter 2026-27.
Published on 22 June, the Winter Outlook 2026-27 Early View Base Case margin for Winter 2026-27 is 5.5GW. The associated Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) is below 0.1 hours. The de-rated margin remains comparable to winter 2024-25 and 2025-26, as a forecast increase in peak demand is offset by new capacity across a range of technologies including battery storage capacity, gas fired power generation and wind generation. It was also noted that the T-1 Capacity Market auction, for delivery in winter 2026-27, secured 7.2GW of new and existing capacity. As such, National Grid Energy System Operator (ESO) expects sufficient operational surplus throughout the winter under a wide range of scenarios for demand, wind generation and generator and interconnector availability. But it warned there could still be days requiring the use of system notices, with current market submissions indicating these are most likely in mid-to-late January.
Source: National Grid ESO
Gas and power prices are expected to remain high compared with winter 2025-26 but are well below the peaks observed in 2022. Early price signals suggest Great Britain will be a net importer across the electricity interconnectors this winter.
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