Post: PJM expects adequate reserves this winter

PJM expects adequate reserves this winter

PJM has said it is anticipating adequate resources to serve the forecasted demand for electricity this winter.

According to the grid operator’s Winter Outlook, published on October 14., this winter is expected to have approximately 179,800MW of resources to meet the forecasted peak demand of approximately 141,200MW, plus a forecast average of about 5,500MW of electricity exports to neighboring systems. This compares to PJM’s all-time winter peak of 143,295MW, set on February 20 2015.

The system should also remain reliable under several more extreme and less likely scenarios involving lower levels of gas and/or renewable generation, higher electricity demand or increased exports, but extreme weather scenarios may require the use of emergency procedures.

But PJM raised concerned that increasing demand, ongoing generator retirements and the slow pace of new projects coming online are tightening reserves. Since Winter Storm Elliott in December 2022, forecasted winter peak demand has risen by over 4,000MW, while the number of thermal generation resources have decreased. These combined factors add a degree of risk that generator failures could leave the system vulnerable to power outages. As such PJM said it will schedule site visits to generation resources along with regional organizations that audit reliability standards on behalf of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC).